NFL playoff picture: What Jaguars win over Colts means in AFC standings

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How Jacksonville’s win over Indianapolis impacted the AFC South standings, as well as the AFC overall

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4 p.m. window update: The Broncos handled their business against the Raiders, winning 24-17 and improving to 11-2 on the season. The win moves Denver ahead of the Patriots thanks to their conference record. The Broncos are 7-2 in AFC games while the Patriots are 6-2. The result leaves the Jaguars in third place overall in the conference, sitting two games back of both the Broncos and Patriots.

SNF update: The Texans beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead to improve to 8-5. The win moves them ahead of the Colts in the AFC South standings because they won the first matchup with Indy. They face off again in Week 18. Houston sits one game behind Jacksonville for the AFC South lead.

Results in Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season propelled the Jacksonville Jaguars into first place in the AFC South, ahead of the Indianapolis Colts.

As luck would have it, those two teams met in Week 14.

The two teams entered play on Sunday with matching 8-4 records, but Jacksonville’s record in games against common opponents (6-2 compared to 5-3 for Indianapolis) gave the Jaguars the tiebreaker advantage.

Now, no tiebreakers are needed.

With Jacksonville’s 36-19 win over Indianapolis, the Jaguars are now in sole possession of first place in the AFC North with a 9-4 record. The Jaguars remain in the No. 3 spot in the AFC playoff standings, behind the idle New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos, who play the Las Vegas Raiders later today.

As for the Colts, they remain in a playoff spot for the moment, but results from around the league could change that. They entered Week 14 sitting at No. 6 in the AFC standings, as one of four teams with an 8-4 record. Jacksonville had the tiebreaker advantage to lead in the division as noted above, and the Los Angeles Chargers slotted in at No. 5 in the AFC over Indianapolis and the Buffalo Bills thanks to their record in AFC play.

The Colts’ 6-3 conference record gave them a tiebreaker advantage over Buffalo, putting the Colts into the sixth slot and the Bills into the seventh.

However, with Buffalo’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals from minutes ago, the Bills are now 9-4 and have moved into the No. 5 spot for the moment, dropping the Chargers to No. 6 and the 8-5 Colts to No. 7.

Now the Colts also need to pay attention to tonight’s game between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs, as tonight’s game could drop them out of the playoffs entirely. If Houston wins that game, the Texans would improve to 8-5, and have a 7-2 record in conference play.

Indianapolis would also be 8-5, with a 6-4 record in AFC play. Therefore, with a better record in AFC play, the Texans would move into a playoff spot with a win over the Chiefs, dropping the Colts out.

This was not the only bad news the Colts received on Sunday. Starting quarterback Daniel Jones left the game with an Achilles’ injury, and the fear in Indianapolis is that Jones is out for the rest of the season.

Looking ahead, here is how the Colts finish out the season:

• at Seattle
• vs. San Francisco
• vs. Jacksonville
• at Houston

Here is the Jaguars’ remaining schedule:

• vs. New York Jets
• at Denver
• at Indianapolis
• vs. Tennessee

AFC playoff standings

1. Denver Broncos: 11-2
2. New England Patriots: 11-2
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-4
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-6
5. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-4
6. Buffalo Bills: 9-4
7. Houston Texans: 8-5
8. Indianapolis Colts: 8-5
9. Baltimore Ravens: 6-7
10. Kansas City Chiefs: 6-7
11. Miami Dolphins: 6-7

AFC South standings

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-4
2. Houston Texans: 8-5
3. Indianapolis Colts: 8-5
4. Tennessee Titans: 2-11

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